2016 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

41·25

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 49°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

48

Model margin

-1.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.128EPA / play+0.056
  • 44.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.276EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.077EPA / rush+0.028
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +2.98CPOE+0.94
  • 47.3%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.47Points / drive2.08
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00970Field goal0–3
NEQ1 11:051465Touchdown7–3
BUFQ1 4:3535Punt7–3
NEQ1 3:41655Touchdown14–3
BUFQ1 1:3339Punt14–3
NEQ2 14:503-7Punt14–3
BUFQ2 13:55822Punt14–3
NEQ2 10:093-3Punt14–3
BUFQ2 8:40636Touchdown14–10
NEQ2 6:26479Touchdown21–10
BUFQ2 4:181249Missed field goal21–10
NEQ2 0:27428Field goal24–10
NEQ3 15:00224Touchdown31–10
BUFQ3 14:001375Touchdown31–17
NEQ3 7:571462Touchdown38–17
BUFQ3 3:05731Turnover on downs38–17
NEQ4 14:551461Field goal41–17
BUFQ4 7:06942Turnover on downs41–17
NEQ4 4:293-6Punt41–17
BUFQ4 2:26737Touchdown41–25
NEQ4 0:3000End of half41–25

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/3331540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount18432.41
Tom Brady11515.00
James White2157.50
Julian Edelman100.00
Jimmy Garoppolo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski571091
Chris Hogan44911
Julian Edelman48371
Martellus Bennett45350
Danny Amendola34291
James White25140

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor19/3818300
EJ Manuel1/23500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee12857.11
Tyrod Taylor5489.61
Brandon Tate11414.00
Jonathan Williams5122.41
Reggie Bush2-8-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Walt Powell38590
Robert Woods47500
Reggie Bush23340
Brandon Tate23170
Nick O'Leary11100
Mike Gillislee3390
Justin Hunter1570
Charles Clay2660

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.56