Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
-1.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.128EPA / play+0.056
- 44.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.276EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.077EPA / rush+0.028
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- +2.98CPOE+0.94
- 47.3%Third-down rate41.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.47Points / drive2.08
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/33 | 315 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 7 | 109 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 4 | 91 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| James White | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 19/38 | 183 | 0 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 1/2 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 12 | 85 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walt Powell | 3 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.56