2017 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.004
- 41.3%Success rate44.2%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.5%
- -2.85CPOE+3.38
- 43.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.87Points / drive1.79
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/32 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/38 | 210 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.47