2017 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·3

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TB -1.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.3%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.167
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -2.85CPOE+3.38
  • 43.2%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.79
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:5235Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:17519Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:121782Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 1:341038Punt7–0
CARQ2 11:38511Punt7–0
TBQ2 9:18949Turnover7–0
CARQ2 5:44521Punt7–0
TBQ2 2:5633Punt7–0
CARQ2 2:28841Field goal10–0
TBQ2 0:1721End of half10–0
CARQ3 15:0035Turnover10–0
TBQ3 13:31624Punt10–0
CARQ3 9:5636Punt10–0
TBQ3 8:16731Field goal10–3
CARQ3 4:49511Punt10–3
TBQ3 1:5030Punt10–3
CARQ3 0:1535Punt10–3
TBQ4 14:13630Turnover10–3
CARQ4 11:32548Touchdown17–3
TBQ4 8:48750Turnover17–3
CARQ4 6:0439Punt17–3
TBQ4 3:53633Turnover on downs17–3
CARQ4 2:34312End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/3215411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton11444.00
Jonathan Stewart11343.11
Curtis Samuel11111.00
Cameron Artis-Payne482.00
Christian McCaffrey430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey57490
Kelvin Benjamin37391
Ed Dickson45240
Curtis Samuel23150
Russell Shepard11140
Devin Funchess26110
Cameron Artis-Payne1120

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/3821002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin18713.90
Jameis Winston3134.30
Jacquizz Rodgers111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate45640
Mike Evans510600
DeSean Jackson38370
Adam Humphries46260
O.J. Howard22160
Chris Godwin Jr.1280
Doug Martin1240
Jacquizz Rodgers11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.47