Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
42
Model margin
+0.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.018
- 45.0%Success rate41.3%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.96CPOE-2.85
- 44.1%Third-down rate43.2%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 2.02Points / drive1.87
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/38 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 12 | 118 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13/24 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9 | 86 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 5 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80