2017 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·20

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

42

Model margin

+0.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.018
  • 45.0%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.096
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.96CPOE-2.85
  • 44.1%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.87
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00550Field goal3–0
CARQ1 12:1639Punt3–0
ATLQ1 10:5233Punt3–0
CARQ1 9:17319Turnover3–0
ATLQ1 8:08966Touchdown10–0
CARQ1 3:30655Turnover10–0
ATLQ1 0:35416Punt10–0
CARQ2 14:05735Punt10–0
ATLQ2 10:331157Turnover on downs10–0
CARQ2 4:30635Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 1:55226Turnover10–7
CARQ2 1:15431Touchdown10–14
ATLQ2 0:2300End of half10–14
CARQ3 15:001052Field goal10–17
ATLQ3 9:0339Punt10–17
CARQ3 7:26950Field goal10–20
ATLQ3 1:383-2Punt10–20
CARQ4 14:43521Punt10–20
ATLQ4 11:38842Turnover on downs10–20
CARQ4 8:12515Punt10–20
ATLQ4 5:26792Touchdown17–20
CARQ4 3:2532Punt17–20
ATLQ4 2:184-3Turnover on downs17–20
CARQ4 1:4246Turnover on downs17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3831321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman11464.20
Tevin Coleman551.00
Taylor Gabriel133.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones6121180
Taylor Gabriel34560
Austin Hooper36360
Justin Hardy22260
Mohamed Sanu33231
Tevin Coleman12191
Devonta Freeman45180
Levine Toilolo1180
Andre Roberts0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton13/2413700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton9869.61
Christian McCaffrey15664.41
Jonathan Stewart11211.90
Curtis Samuel11414.00
Russell Shepard11111.00
Cameron Artis-Payne133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess57860
Christian McCaffrey56280
Curtis Samuel35230
Ed Dickson0200
Russell Shepard0200
Kaelin Clay0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.80