Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play-0.071
- 49.2%Success rate39.0%
- +0.254EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.135
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.49CPOE-0.28
- 40.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.47
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/30 | 258 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 92 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 2 |
| James White | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 9 | 11 | 147 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 9/18 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Peterman | 6/15 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.06