2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

23·3

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 48°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.137EPA / play-0.071
  • 49.2%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.254EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.042EPA / rush-0.135
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.49CPOE-0.28
  • 40.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.47
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001366Turnover0–0
NEQ1 7:511369Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 1:30623Punt3–0
NEQ2 13:32627Punt3–0
BUFQ2 10:53414Punt3–0
NEQ2 9:47656Field goal6–0
BUFQ2 6:26645Field goal6–3
NEQ2 3:05960Field goal9–3
BUFQ2 0:1525End of half9–3
NEQ3 15:001185Touchdown16–3
BUFQ3 9:0278Punt16–3
NEQ3 5:46978Touchdown23–3
BUFQ3 1:08716Punt23–3
NEQ4 14:2837Punt23–3
BUFQ4 12:581468Turnover on downs23–3
NEQ4 8:47850Turnover23–3
BUFQ4 4:39419Turnover on downs23–3
NEQ4 3:3335Punt23–3
BUFQ4 1:5644Turnover on downs23–3
NEQ4 0:5900End of half23–3

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/3025801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis15926.10
Rex Burkhead12786.52
James White5183.60
Brandin Cooks155.00
Brian Hoyer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski9111470
Danny Amendola24340
James White46320
Rex Burkhead34250
Brandin Cooks23170
Dwayne Allen1130
Jacob Hollister0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor9/186501
Nathan Peterman6/155000
Joe Webb0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy15936.20
Tyrod Taylor33210.70
Joe Webb3279.00
Travaris Cadet4225.50
Nathan Peterman199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones27220
Deonte Thompson28210
Charles Clay33200
Travaris Cadet35190
Jordan Matthews13140
Logan Thomas22100
LeSean McCoy2590
Andre Holmes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.06