Closing spread
NE -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.137
- 39.0%Success rate49.2%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.042
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.28CPOE+3.49
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.8%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.47Points / drive2.52
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 21/38 | 281 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Thompson | 4 | 5 | 91 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/28 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 24 | 129 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Mike Gillislee | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.54