2017 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

19·22

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.018
  • 44.2%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.096
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.38CPOE-2.85
  • 42.9%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.87
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:00517Turnover0–0
CARQ1 12:08714Field goal0–3
TBQ1 8:131063Field goal3–3
CARQ1 2:243-6Punt3–3
TBQ1 0:30532Turnover3–3
CARQ2 13:361062Field goal3–6
TBQ2 8:383-2Punt3–6
CARQ2 6:4038Punt3–6
TBQ2 5:16561Field goal6–12
CARQ2 2:5800Touchdown6–12
TBQ2 2:431054Field goal9–12
CARQ2 0:0200End of half9–12
CARQ3 15:00731Turnover9–12
TBQ3 11:28349Touchdown16–12
CARQ3 10:271258Field goal16–15
TBQ3 4:491072Field goal19–15
CARQ4 14:57933Punt19–15
TBQ4 9:001253Missed field goal19–15
CARQ4 3:001057Touchdown19–22
TBQ4 0:351-7Turnover19–22
CARQ4 0:3000End of half19–22

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/2736710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber13513.90
Doug Martin671.20
Jameis Winston362.00
Jacquizz Rodgers122.00
Charles Sims100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans681070
Chris Godwin Jr.36980
Freddie Martino22570
Adam Humphries33510
Charles Sims11190
Bobo Wilson11181
Cameron Brate34130
Peyton Barber2240

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2516001
Derek Anderson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton14523.71
Christian McCaffrey9394.30
Jonathan Stewart7192.70
Fozzy Whittaker155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brenton Bersin34450
Damiere Byrd12310
Greg Olsen36270
Kaelin Clay24240
Christian McCaffrey24190
Devin Funchess34110
Fozzy Whittaker1140
Jonathan Stewart11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.09