2017 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.018
- 44.2%Success rate41.3%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.096
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.38CPOE-2.85
- 42.9%Third-down rate43.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.87
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/27 | 367 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/25 | 160 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Bersin | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.09