2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

10·22

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.047
  • 41.3%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback+0.185
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.152
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.85CPOE+2.96
  • 43.2%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.02
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:323-2Punt0–7
ATLQ1 9:24728Punt0–7
CARQ1 6:03629Punt0–7
ATLQ1 3:57529Punt0–7
CARQ1 1:35412Punt0–7
ATLQ2 14:4339Punt0–7
CARQ2 12:1630Punt0–7
ATLQ2 11:15510Punt0–7
CARQ2 9:151773Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 0:50444End of half7–7
CARQ3 15:0036Punt7–7
ATLQ3 13:261273Field goal7–10
CARQ3 6:3123Turnover7–10
ATLQ3 5:44410Field goal7–13
CARQ3 3:4437Punt7–13
ATLQ3 2:37745Field goal7–16
CARQ4 14:11653Field goal10–16
ATLQ4 10:34737Field goal10–19
CARQ4 6:3731Punt10–19
ATLQ4 5:2734Punt10–19
CARQ4 4:2010Turnover10–19
ATLQ4 4:0838Field goal10–22
CARQ4 2:27966Turnover10–22
ATLQ4 0:0800End of half10–22

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton14/3418013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton11595.40
Cameron Artis-Payne5163.20
Christian McCaffrey6142.30
Fozzy Whittaker100.00
Kaelin Clay1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess26481
Christian McCaffrey58400
Brenton Bersin24360
Ed Dickson23220
Kaelin Clay12150
Greg Olsen19100
Fozzy Whittaker1190

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan28/4531710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman11232.10
Tevin Coleman11232.10
Matt Ryan3144.70
Mohamed Sanu100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devonta Freeman911851
Julio Jones511800
Mohamed Sanu711710
Austin Hooper33350
Justin Hardy23320
Tevin Coleman22140
Taylor Gabriel0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.68