Closing spread
ATL -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.047
- 41.3%Success rate45.0%
- +0.040EPA / dropback+0.185
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.152
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.85CPOE+2.96
- 43.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.87Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/34 | 180 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Kaelin Clay | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 28/45 | 317 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 9 | 11 | 85 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 7 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68