Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.140
- 47.3%Success rate37.8%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.03CPOE-7.12
- 41.8%Third-down rate32.3%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 2.32Points / drive1.26
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 29/45 | 324 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James White | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| James White | 10 | 13 | 79 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 22/39 | 290 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Peterman | 2/2 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Phillips | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.49