2018 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

25·6

Bills

Buffalo

QB Derek Anderson

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 46°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NE -13.5

Total

44

Model margin

-1.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.140
  • 47.3%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.143
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.03CPOE-7.12
  • 41.8%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.26
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:0069Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:43625Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:011469Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 4:46525Punt3–0
NEQ1 1:401063Field goal6–0
BUFQ2 11:4734Punt6–0
NEQ2 10:09837Field goal9–0
BUFQ2 5:42946Field goal9–3
NEQ2 1:39543Missed field goal9–3
BUFQ2 0:0500End of half9–3
BUFQ3 15:00760Punt9–3
NEQ3 11:1536Punt9–3
BUFQ3 9:1632Field goal9–6
NEQ3 7:39839Punt9–6
BUFQ3 3:4229Turnover9–6
NEQ3 2:55422Field goal12–6
BUFQ3 2:03524Punt12–6
NEQ4 14:481194Touchdown18–6
BUFQ4 9:581060Opp touchdown25–6
BUFQ4 5:54643Turnover on downs25–6
NEQ4 3:5237Punt25–6
BUFQ4 2:54736Turnover on downs25–6
NEQ4 0:4800End of half25–6

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady29/4532400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson10383.80
James White8151.91
Julian Edelman2136.50
Tom Brady188.00
Kenjon Barner242.00
Brian Hoyer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman9101040
James White1013790
Chris Hogan22490
Rob Gronkowski38430
Josh Gordon46420

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson22/3929001
Nathan Peterman2/22300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory6345.70
LeSean McCoy12131.10
Derek Anderson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy68820
Zay Jones68550
Andre Holmes23450
Kelvin Benjamin27450
Charles Clay36360
Ray-Ray McCloud11160
Jason Croom13140
Chris Ivory12110
Cam Phillips1190
Patrick DiMarco1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.49