Closing spread
NE -14
Total
46
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play+0.090
- 37.8%Success rate47.3%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- -7.12CPOE+1.03
- 32.3%Third-down rate41.8%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.26Points / drive2.32
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/41 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Ford | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 5 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Jason Croom | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Keith Ford | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/24 | 126 | 1 | 2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 66 | 16.5 | 0 |
| James White | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58