Closing spread
NE -14
Total
46
Model margin
+3.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutRyan LewisCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableChris IvoryRBShoulder· Full
Patriots
- QuestionableBrandon KingLBKnee· Limited
- DNPCordarrelle PattersonWRIllness
- LimitedRob GronkowskiTEAnkle
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play+0.090
- 37.8%Success rate47.3%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- -7.12CPOE+1.03
- 32.3%Third-down rate41.8%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.26Points / drive2.32
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:54 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 7:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 5:39 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 1:47 | 5 | 16 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 0:08 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 13:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:19 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 9:59 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| NE | Q2 9:41 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 7:44 | 10 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| NE | Q2 2:23 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q2 0:39 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 0–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| BUF | Q3 14:48 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| NE | Q3 13:29 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q3 11:16 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| NE | Q3 10:06 | 10 | 98 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| BUF | Q3 5:05 | 4 | 68 | Turnover | 6–21 |
| NE | Q3 2:48 | 12 | 45 | Punt | 6–21 |
| BUF | Q4 12:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–21 |
| NE | Q4 10:55 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| BUF | Q4 7:44 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 6–24 |
| NE | Q4 6:39 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 6–24 |
| BUF | Q4 5:07 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 6–24 |
| NE | Q4 4:01 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–24 |
| BUF | Q4 2:59 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 12–24 |
| NE | Q4 1:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/41 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Ford | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 5 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Jason Croom | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Keith Ford | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/24 | 126 | 1 | 2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 66 | 16.5 | 0 |
| James White | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58