2019 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

20·14

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

-2.4est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.082
  • 43.6%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.42CPOE-2.45
  • 42.2%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 71.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.56
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:01943Field goal0–0
TBQ1 8:31532Field goal3–0
CARQ1 5:36761Field goal3–3
TBQ1 2:52314Punt3–3
CARQ1 0:40614Punt3–3
TBQ2 12:3236Punt3–3
CARQ2 9:55423Field goal3–6
TBQ2 8:26629Punt3–6
CARQ2 5:34413Punt3–6
TBQ2 3:47572Touchdown10–6
CARQ2 1:20839Field goal10–9
CARQ3 15:00425Punt10–9
TBQ3 13:2231Punt10–9
CARQ3 11:21529Field goal10–12
TBQ3 7:51760Touchdown17–12
CARQ3 4:20514Turnover17–12
TBQ3 2:54621Missed field goal17–12
CARQ4 15:00526Punt17–12
TBQ4 13:372-2Safety17–14
CARQ4 13:2144Turnover on downs17–14
TBQ4 11:393-15Punt17–14
CARQ4 9:2430Punt17–14
TBQ4 8:581053Field goal20–14
CARQ4 2:261161Turnover on downs20–14
TBQ4 1:2212End of half20–14

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston16/2520810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber23823.61
Jameis Winston492.30
Ronald Jones492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.891211
Mike Evans48610
Cameron Brate22100
Dare Ogunbowale1190
Peyton Barber1170
Breshad Perriman0400

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/5133300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey16372.30
Curtis Samuel122.00
Cam Newton200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen691100
Curtis Samuel513910
DJ Moore914890
Christian McCaffrey26160
Jarius Wright26150
Chris Hogan11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.31
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.35