2019 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
CAR -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
-2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.082
- 43.6%Success rate43.3%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.42CPOE-2.45
- 42.2%Third-down rate32.4%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.86Points / drive1.56
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/25 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 23 | 82 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/51 | 333 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 37 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 13 | 91 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 9 | 14 | 89 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.31
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.35