2019 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
46
Model margin
+0.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.084
- 43.6%Success rate47.0%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.42CPOE+3.92
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.9%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.86Points / drive2.45
- 3.6%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 15/27 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 9 | 125 | 2 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 26/34 | 314 | 4 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 11 | 13 | 182 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60