2019 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

37·26

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

CAR -2

Total

48.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.000
  • 43.3%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.168
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -2.45CPOE+0.42
  • 32.4%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.86
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:503-2Field goal3–0
TBQ1 13:2036Punt3–0
CARQ1 11:5630Punt3–0
TBQ1 11:30419Punt3–0
CARQ1 8:371284Touchdown10–0
TBQ1 1:0533Punt10–0
TBQ2 14:02337Touchdown10–7
CARQ2 12:4330Punt10–7
TBQ2 11:10414Turnover10–7
CARQ2 9:11436Touchdown17–7
TBQ2 7:321249Turnover17–7
CARQ2 1:0733Punt17–7
TBQ2 0:41515Punt17–7
CARQ2 0:0100Missed field goal17–7
CARQ3 15:00520Punt17–7
TBQ3 12:2039Punt17–7
CARQ3 10:19439Field goal20–7
TBQ3 8:2110Turnover26–7
CARQ3 8:1018Touchdown27–7
TBQ3 8:05749Field goal27–10
CARQ3 5:271075Touchdown34–10
TBQ4 14:55760Touchdown34–18
CARQ4 12:513-4Punt34–18
TBQ4 11:5230Punt34–18
CARQ4 11:3034Punt34–18
CARQ4 9:555-4Field goal37–18
TBQ4 7:561175Touchdown37–26
CARQ4 4:4739Punt37–26
TBQ4 2:59622Turnover37–26
CARQ4 2:2331Missed field goal37–26
TBQ4 1:12549Turnover37–26
CARQ4 0:1600End of half37–26

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen20/3222720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey22311.41
DJ Moore11313.00
Curtis Samuel188.01
Alex Armah242.00
Kyle Allen331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore710730
Curtis Samuel46701
Greg Olsen47520
Christian McCaffrey45261
Jarius Wright1360

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston30/5440015

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber8283.50
Ronald Jones4102.51
Dare Ogunbowale133.01
Jameis Winston111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.10121510
Mike Evans917960
Cameron Brate24471
Scott Miller37390
O.J. Howard24350
Dare Ogunbowale35220
Bobo Wilson13100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.14