2019 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Tottenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
CAR -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.000
- 43.3%Success rate43.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.168
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.0%
- -2.45CPOE+0.42
- 32.4%Third-down rate42.2%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 1.56Points / drive1.86
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 20/32 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 31 | 1.4 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Alex Armah | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 30/54 | 400 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 10 | 12 | 151 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 9 | 17 | 96 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Bobo Wilson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14