2019 · Week 11 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
NO -5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.000
- 47.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.172EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.168
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- +3.92CPOE+0.42
- 43.9%Third-down rate42.2%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 2.45Points / drive1.86
- 0.7%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/35 | 228 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 75 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 10 | 114 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 30/51 | 313 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brate | 10 | 14 | 73 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92