2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

34·17

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NO -5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.000
  • 47.0%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.172EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.168
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +3.92CPOE+0.42
  • 43.9%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.86
  • 0.7%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
NOQ1 15:00950Field goal3–0
TBQ1 8:4536Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:511278Field goal6–0
TBQ1 0:5020Turnover12–0
NOQ1 0:03116Touchdown13–0
TBQ2 15:0065Punt13–0
NOQ2 11:551351Touchdown20–0
TBQ2 5:13780Touchdown20–7
NOQ2 2:4242Punt20–7
TBQ2 1:381019Turnover20–7
TBQ3 15:001037Field goal20–10
NOQ3 11:081085Touchdown27–10
TBQ3 5:27875Touchdown27–17
NOQ3 1:2248Punt27–17
TBQ4 14:46636Punt27–17
NOQ4 11:47934Punt27–17
TBQ4 5:52522Opp touchdown34–17
TBQ4 5:071054Turnover34–17
NOQ4 2:4336End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3522830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara13755.80
Latavius Murray10272.70
Taysom Hill122.00
Drew Brees300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas8101141
Alvin Kamara1010470
Jared Cook22331
Ted Ginn24141
Josh Hill2280
Latavius Murray2350
Taysom Hill1120
Tre'Quan Smith0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston30/5131324

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jameis Winston22311.50
Ronald Jones4133.30
Dare Ogunbowale200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Brate1014730
Scott Miller46710
Mike Evans48690
Chris Godwin Jr.36471
Breshad Perriman13200
Peyton Barber22111
T.J. Logan11110
Dare Ogunbowale34100
Ronald Jones2410
O.J. Howard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92