Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
40
Model margin
+3.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.091
- 48.6%Success rate47.4%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.048
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.93CPOE+1.95
- 45.5%Third-down rate47.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.41Points / drive2.52
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 10 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/30 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.50