2021 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

14·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 36°F · wind 27mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

40

Model margin

+3.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.070EPA / play+0.091
  • 48.6%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.048
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.93CPOE+1.95
  • 45.5%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.41Points / drive2.52
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:4633Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:1635Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:0946Turnover0–0
NEQ1 6:55369Touchdown8–0
BUFQ1 5:18613Punt8–6
BUFQ1 2:07114Touchdown8–7
NEQ1 2:02852Field goal11–7
BUFQ2 11:28931Punt11–7
NEQ2 5:1234Punt11–7
BUFQ2 3:0237Punt11–7
NEQ2 1:48425Punt11–7
BUFQ3 15:00416Punt11–7
NEQ3 13:40619Punt11–7
BUFQ3 9:15731Field goal11–10
NEQ3 6:351359Field goal14–10
BUFQ4 13:011042Missed field goal14–10
NEQ4 7:2436Punt14–10
BUFQ4 5:471167Turnover on downs14–10
NEQ4 1:5524Turnover on downs14–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris1011111.11
Rhamondre Stevenson24783.30
Brandon Bolden4287.00
Nelson Agholor166.00
Kendrick Bourne133.00
Jonnu Smith1-1-1.00
Mac Jones5-3-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith11120
Brandon Bolden1170
Nelson Agholor0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/3014510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen6396.50
Devin Singletary10363.60
Zack Moss8212.60
Matt Breida133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs47510
Gabe Davis24301
Emmanuel Sanders36220
Dawson Knox26140
Zack Moss23120
Cole Beasley13110
Matt Breida1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.50