Closing spread
NE -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.070
- 47.4%Success rate48.6%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.1%
- +1.95CPOE+2.93
- 47.6%Third-down rate45.5%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.52Points / drive2.41
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30/47 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McKenzie | 11 | 12 | 125 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 13 | 85 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 14/32 | 145 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15