2021 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

33·21

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.070
  • 47.4%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.012
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +1.95CPOE+2.93
  • 47.6%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.41
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
NEQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:341361Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 6:371485Touchdown7–7
BUFQ2 14:28968Field goal10–7
NEQ2 9:01314Turnover10–7
BUFQ2 7:57732Turnover on downs10–7
NEQ2 4:4437Punt10–7
BUFQ2 3:10737Touchdown17–7
NEQ2 1:4567Punt17–7
BUFQ2 1:00311End of half17–7
BUFQ3 15:001579Field goal20–7
NEQ3 9:021477Touchdown20–14
BUFQ3 1:41966Touchdown26–14
NEQ4 11:421170Touchdown26–21
BUFQ4 7:371375Touchdown33–21
NEQ4 2:30934Turnover33–21
BUFQ4 1:0300End of half33–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen30/4731430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen12645.30
Devin Singletary12393.31
Zack Moss3124.00
Isaiah McKenzie1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah McKenzie11121251
Stefon Diggs713851
Devin Singletary56390
Emmanuel Sanders24200
Jake Kumerow13130
Zack Moss11130
Dawson Knox23111
Reggie Gilliam1180

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones14/3214502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris181035.73
Mac Jones6335.50
Gunner Olszewski199.00
Brandon Bolden242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers68590
Kendrick Bourne24330
Brandon Bolden25200
N'Keal Harry26150
Hunter Henry1690
Jakob Johnson1190
Damien Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.15