Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
- +0.142EPA / play-0.042
- 48.8%Success rate42.4%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.103
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.225
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.17CPOE+1.94
- 48.7%Third-down rate38.2%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
- 2.97Points / drive1.93
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.47