Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+7.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
- +0.271EPA / play+0.029
- 48.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.425EPA / dropback+0.196
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.195
- 0.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- +7.73CPOE+2.36
- 72.7%Third-down rate18.2%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.98Points / drive1.29
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.45
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+7.43