Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.155
- 41.4%Success rate37.7%
- -0.047EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.212
- 9.1%Explosive rate5.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate33.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.10
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. SF are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:22 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:21 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:12 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:22 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 11:49 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 8:51 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| SF | Q2 6:17 | 10 | 78 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| ATL | Q2 1:14 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 14–3 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 14–3 |
| ATL | Q3 9:25 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| SF | Q3 7:57 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q3 7:11 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–6 |
| SF | Q3 5:35 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q3 3:01 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–6 |
| SF | Q3 1:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 14–6 |
| SF | Q4 13:26 | 9 | 59 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q4 9:29 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| SF | Q4 8:57 | 9 | 42 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| ATL | Q4 6:14 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 21–13 |
| SF | Q4 4:33 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 21–19 |
| ATL | Q4 0:40 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/22 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 18/31 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
| Ken Dorsey | 9/15 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29