Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.155
- 41.4%Success rate37.7%
- -0.047EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.212
- 9.1%Explosive rate5.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate33.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.10
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/22 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 63 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 18/31 | 175 | 2 | 1 |
| Ken Dorsey | 9/15 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29