Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
-0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.147
- 38.4%Success rate38.6%
- -0.127EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.251
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.0%Third-down rate29.2%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.22Points / drive1.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:31 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 9:31 | 11 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 4:47 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:04 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 0:12 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 13:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q2 12:06 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 7:42 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q2 2:44 | 7 | 25 | End of half | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 32 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q3 10:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q3 8:52 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q3 5:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q3 4:22 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–3 |
| CLE | Q3 1:57 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 0:24 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| CLE | Q4 13:30 | 10 | 85 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| BAL | Q4 7:18 | 3 | -14 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| CLE | Q4 5:58 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q4 4:20 | 6 | 19 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| CLE | Q4 2:45 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 3–20 |
| BAL | Q4 1:41 | 8 | 49 | End of half | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 22/38 | 191 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/24 | 180 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 22 | 65 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| James Jackson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.17