Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.110EPA / play+0.025
- 46.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.127
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- 46.7%Third-down rate39.2%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 2.02Points / drive1.65
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 9:38 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:04 | 8 | 25 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 3:28 | 8 | 49 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q2 14:43 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 12:48 | 12 | 45 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 7:43 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q2 3:25 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 10–7 |
| GB | Q2 0:58 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 10–7 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| GB | Q3 14:11 | 8 | 41 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| CAR | Q3 10:59 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| GB | Q3 8:00 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| CAR | Q3 2:01 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 24–7 |
| GB | Q3 0:04 | 8 | 11 | Punt | 24–7 |
| CAR | Q4 10:41 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–7 |
| GB | Q4 9:54 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 24–7 |
| CAR | Q4 5:32 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| GB | Q4 4:46 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 24–14 |
| CAR | Q4 1:47 | 7 | 38 | End of half | 24–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/22 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 33 | 119 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Tony Fisher | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 23/39 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32