Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
35
Model margin
+4.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.073
- 39.9%Success rate40.7%
- +0.014EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.139
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.27Points / drive1.71
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.135
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 18/36 | 147 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 17/26 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 23 | 75 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.69