Closing spread
GB -9
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.110
- 35.2%Success rate46.2%
- -0.283EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- 25.7%Third-down rate46.7%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 0.78Points / drive2.02
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 10/18 | 132 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 152 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | -15 | -15.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/42 | 252 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.68
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.22