Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.036
- 45.7%Success rate39.9%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- 38.2%Third-down rate36.7%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.27
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:20 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:35 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:58 | 6 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 12:39 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 9:37 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 7:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:06 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q2 3:11 | 9 | 76 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 13:41 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q3 8:31 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q3 6:22 | 14 | 27 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q3 0:29 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q4 12:37 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q4 9:16 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q4 6:34 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–7 |
| DEN | Q4 2:20 | 11 | 56 | Turnover | 6–7 |
| JAX | Q4 0:37 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 6–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/39 | 250 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Griffin | 25 | 66 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 8/16 | 120 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.20