2004 · Week 2

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

6·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

38

Model margin

+0.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJaguars
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.036
  • 45.7%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • 38.2%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.27
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
  • -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.011

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39.3 points. JAX are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16JAX @ DEN34–20JAX
2022 · W8DEN @ JAX21–17DEN
2021 · W2DEN @ JAX23–13DEN
2019 · W4JAX @ DEN26–24JAX
2016 · W13DEN @ JAX20–10DEN
2013 · W6JAX @ DEN19–35DEN
2010 · W1DEN @ JAX17–24JAX
2008 · W6JAX @ DEN24–17JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer23/3925000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quentin Griffin25662.60
Jake Plummer6244.00
Tatum Bell4164.00

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich8/1612010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor16543.40
Byron Leftwich284.00
LaBrandon Toefield2-4-2.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.20