Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+7.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.028
- 37.7%Success rate40.2%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.169
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.10Points / drive1.72
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/32 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 20 | 114 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Jamal Robertson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 25/34 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.55