Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+7.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.028
- 37.7%Success rate40.2%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.169
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate33.4%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.10Points / drive1.72
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:57 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:18 | 4 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:04 | 3 | 59 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 6:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q1 5:11 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| SF | Q1 2:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NO | Q1 1:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 14:46 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NO | Q2 11:46 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| SF | Q2 9:42 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q2 7:36 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| SF | Q2 3:35 | 11 | 47 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| NO | Q2 0:28 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 17–20 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 17–23 |
| SF | Q3 11:18 | 9 | 34 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| NO | Q3 6:27 | 7 | 5 | Punt | 20–23 |
| SF | Q3 3:10 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 20–23 |
| NO | Q3 1:09 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 20–23 |
| SF | Q4 14:46 | 15 | 84 | Touchdown | 27–23 |
| NO | Q4 7:07 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 27–23 |
| SF | Q4 5:14 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 27–23 |
| NO | Q4 3:42 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 27–30 |
| SF | Q4 1:01 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 27–30 |
| NO | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 18/32 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 20 | 114 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Jamal Robertson | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 25/34 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.55