Closing spread
ATL -11
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.032
- 38.1%Success rate41.4%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.047
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 34.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.19Points / drive1.69
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed-0.024
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:40 | 6 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 7:12 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 3:32 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q2 14:05 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q2 12:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q2 9:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q2 7:52 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q2 3:10 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q2 1:46 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q2 1:30 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q2 0:27 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q3 13:28 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q3 8:54 | 10 | 50 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q3 4:13 | 14 | 56 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q4 12:28 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q4 11:35 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| ATL | Q4 9:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–6 |
| ARI | Q4 7:46 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 3–6 |
| ATL | Q4 4:11 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| ARI | Q4 3:19 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| ATL | Q4 2:26 | 6 | 72 | End of half | 3–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 20/26 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 5/6 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 18 | 45 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10/20 | 115 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 117 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14