Closing spread
MIN -12
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.162
- 35.2%Success rate50.0%
- -0.283EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.097
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- 25.7%Third-down rate52.5%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 0.78Points / drive2.26
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 8:08 | 9 | 61 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:16 | 7 | 54 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:10 | 1 | 4 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| MIN | Q2 13:41 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q2 8:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–7 |
| MIN | Q2 7:32 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q2 5:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q2 2:43 | 9 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:20 | 3 | 22 | End of half | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| CHI | Q3 10:58 | 8 | 79 | Missed field goal | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q3 6:44 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| CHI | Q3 3:00 | 7 | 27 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| MIN | Q4 14:46 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 9–20 |
| CHI | Q4 11:20 | 10 | 79 | Touchdown | 15–20 |
| MIN | Q4 6:20 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 15–27 |
| CHI | Q4 5:39 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 22–27 |
| MIN | Q4 2:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 22–27 |
| CHI | Q4 1:36 | 5 | -7 | Turnover on downs | 22–27 |
| MIN | Q4 1:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 21/31 | 248 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/30 | 360 | 2 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.68
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.43