Closing spread
MIN -12
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.162
- 35.2%Success rate50.0%
- -0.283EPA / dropback+0.287
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.097
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- 25.7%Third-down rate52.5%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 0.78Points / drive2.26
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.102EPA / play allowed+0.107
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 21/31 | 248 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 19/30 | 360 | 2 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.68
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.43