Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.025
- 41.4%Success rate42.1%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.127
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- 36.1%Third-down rate39.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.69Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10/18 | 148 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| T.J. Duckett | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 23/38 | 308 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.57