Closing spread
IND -4
Total
42
Model margin
+0.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.036
- 53.8%Success rate39.9%
- +0.412EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.111
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- 44.4%Third-down rate36.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 2.73Points / drive1.27
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 14:09 | 12 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:46 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:55 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 4:14 | 12 | 47 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 12:39 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 9:24 | 11 | 44 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 2:18 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| JAX | Q2 0:40 | 5 | 46 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| IND | Q3 8:46 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| JAX | Q3 2:54 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| IND | Q4 12:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–9 |
| JAX | Q4 11:53 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| IND | Q4 10:37 | 14 | 66 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| JAX | Q4 3:33 | 8 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 24–17 |
| IND | Q4 1:52 | 5 | 11 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/29 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 29/41 | 318 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 68 | 3.2 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.07