Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.097
- 40.2%Success rate38.1%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.128
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- 33.4%Third-down rate34.7%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.72Points / drive1.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.061EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 79 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 5:38 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NO | Q1 4:26 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 4:10 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 14:56 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 11:10 | 10 | 46 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 6:02 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 3:48 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NO | Q2 1:12 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–14 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q3 13:02 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NO | Q3 9:54 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ARI | Q3 7:07 | 9 | 80 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 1:29 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q4 14:54 | 9 | 27 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| NO | Q4 9:44 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–20 |
| ARI | Q4 8:12 | 5 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| NO | Q4 5:02 | 5 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q4 3:52 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| NO | Q4 1:54 | 7 | 28 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 24/40 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 12/18 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04