Closing spread
SF -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.155
- 38.1%Success rate37.7%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.212
- 7.0%Explosive rate5.6%
- 34.7%Third-down rate33.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.19Points / drive1.10
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 19/34 | 231 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 38/57 | 417 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jamal Robertson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72