Closing spread
NE -11
Total
34
Model margin
+5.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play+0.099
- 35.8%Success rate46.5%
- -0.181EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.039
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- 34.6%Third-down rate45.1%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 0.97Points / drive2.15
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 20/41 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
| A.J. Feeley | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Forsey | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Leonard Henry | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 7/19 | 76 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.75