2004 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.028
- 42.6%Success rate40.2%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 37.9%Third-down rate33.4%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.25Points / drive1.72
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.089EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 16/19 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 5/8 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 11/23 | 106 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.49