Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play-0.028
- 50.0%Success rate40.2%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.169
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- 52.5%Third-down rate33.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.26Points / drive1.72
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 70 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:35 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:53 | 15 | 59 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:06 | 3 | 38 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:03 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q2 11:25 | 8 | 84 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 7:48 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q2 6:29 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:47 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q2 4:24 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:53 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| MIN | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 12 | End of half | 21–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 21–14 |
| MIN | Q3 13:27 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| NO | Q3 10:48 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| MIN | Q3 6:13 | 7 | 62 | Field goal | 31–21 |
| NO | Q3 2:26 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 31–24 |
| MIN | Q4 13:08 | 13 | 46 | Touchdown | 38–24 |
| NO | Q4 7:04 | 11 | 65 | Touchdown | 38–31 |
| MIN | Q4 2:51 | 5 | 68 | End of half | 38–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/37 | 425 | 5 | 2 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 15 | 109 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 22/38 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 53 | 53.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62