Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play-0.028
- 50.0%Success rate40.2%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.169
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- 52.5%Third-down rate33.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.26Points / drive1.72
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 52.1 points. NO are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/37 | 425 | 5 | 2 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 15 | 109 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 22/38 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Fred McAfee | 1 | 53 | 53.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62