Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
31
Model margin
+1.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.113
- 40.7%Success rate38.4%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.8%Third-down rate35.0%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.71Points / drive1.22
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.135EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 20/36 | 203 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 10/19 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 21 | 89 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| B.J. Sams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.69