Closing spread
IND -9
Total
47
Model margin
+5.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.239
- 39.9%Success rate53.8%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.005
- 7.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- 36.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.27Points / drive2.73
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 23/30 | 300 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 107 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/39 | 368 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.61