Closing spread
IND -9
Total
47
Model margin
+5.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.239
- 39.9%Success rate53.8%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.005
- 7.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- 36.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.27Points / drive2.73
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:32 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:30 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 2:30 | 8 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 13:27 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 9:23 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 1:52 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| IND | Q3 14:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 13:06 | 9 | 96 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| IND | Q3 8:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q3 7:22 | 6 | 59 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| IND | Q3 3:11 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| JAX | Q3 2:56 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 16–14 |
| IND | Q4 14:52 | 11 | 75 | Field goal | 16–17 |
| JAX | Q4 9:32 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| IND | Q4 6:14 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| JAX | Q4 3:52 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 27–24 |
| IND | Q4 0:38 | 4 | 38 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 23/30 | 300 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 107 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/39 | 368 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.61