Closing spread
NE -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play+0.099
- 45.5%Success rate46.5%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.228
- +0.058EPA / rush-0.039
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- 42.9%Third-down rate45.1%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.86Points / drive2.15
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/30 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/29 | 230 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 115 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.11