Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.022
- 39.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 36.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.27Points / drive1.44
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 25/40 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 2/2 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaBrandon Toefield | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 26/34 | 276 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 22 | 56 | 2.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.89