Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.022
- 39.9%Success rate41.4%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- 36.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 48.2%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.27Points / drive1.44
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 7:35 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 3:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 2:07 | 9 | 71 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 12:22 | 11 | 49 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 6:33 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 2:04 | 10 | 58 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 26 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q3 12:58 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 8:46 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q3 5:04 | 8 | 54 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 1:29 | 7 | 45 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q4 12:16 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| JAX | Q4 6:45 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| HOU | Q4 3:52 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 6–13 |
| JAX | Q4 0:56 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 6–20 |
| JAX | Q4 0:42 | 3 | 26 | End of half | 6–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 25/40 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 2/2 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaBrandon Toefield | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 26/34 | 276 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 22 | 56 | 2.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.89