Closing spread
NE -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play+0.044
- 46.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- 45.1%Third-down rate44.9%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 15–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 13:57 | 6 | 25 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 7:56 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:46 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q1 3:31 | 5 | 27 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NE | Q1 0:29 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–21 |
| NE | Q1 0:13 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 13:28 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–21 |
| NE | Q2 9:26 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 7:35 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| NE | Q2 2:06 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q2 0:42 | 6 | 33 | End of half | 10–24 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| PIT | Q3 14:43 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| NE | Q3 13:06 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 13–31 |
| PIT | Q3 10:41 | 13 | 61 | Field goal | 13–34 |
| NE | Q3 2:06 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 13–34 |
| PIT | Q3 0:22 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 13–34 |
| NE | Q4 9:47 | 11 | 91 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| PIT | Q4 6:33 | 8 | 62 | End of half | 20–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/43 | 271 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Cedric Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/24 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 25 | 125 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.20