Closing spread
NE -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play+0.044
- 46.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.028
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- 45.1%Third-down rate44.9%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.15Points / drive1.83
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.133
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/43 | 271 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Cedric Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/24 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 25 | 125 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.20