Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.240
- 37.7%Success rate35.2%
- -0.120EPA / dropback-0.283
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.177
- 5.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- 33.2%Third-down rate25.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.10Points / drive0.78
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.102
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 16/36 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Krenzel | 13/25 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Craig Krenzel | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.82
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.31