Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
35
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.147EPA / play-0.113
- 38.6%Success rate38.4%
- -0.067EPA / dropback-0.127
- -0.251EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 29.2%Third-down rate35.0%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.18Points / drive1.22
- 3.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.002EPA / play allowed-0.136
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/26 | 146 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| William Green | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 17/30 | 142 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.74