Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
44
Model margin
+4.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.059
- 41.4%Success rate45.7%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.056
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- 38.7%Third-down rate38.2%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.44Points / drive1.84
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 61 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:57 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:26 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 1:51 | 8 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 13:08 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 9:52 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 7:12 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q2 5:16 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DEN | Q2 5:12 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| HOU | Q2 1:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DEN | Q2 1:25 | 6 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| HOU | Q2 0:32 | 5 | 26 | End of half | 7–24 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| HOU | Q3 11:07 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 7–31 |
| DEN | Q3 7:13 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 7–31 |
| HOU | Q3 1:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–31 |
| DEN | Q4 14:49 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 7–31 |
| HOU | Q4 10:41 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| DEN | Q4 6:53 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 13–31 |
| HOU | Q4 4:13 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 13–31 |
| DEN | Q4 2:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–31 |
| HOU | Q4 1:48 | 9 | 39 | End of half | 13–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/41 | 245 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Tony Hollings | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 16/24 | 234 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 29 | 120 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16