2004 · Week 9

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

13·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Jake Plummer

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

44

Model margin

+4.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBroncos
  • -0.022EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.4%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.056
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • 38.7%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.84
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr22/4124500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Domanick Williams19713.72
Tony Hollings2157.50
David Carr5102.00
Jonathan Wells177.00

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer16/2423440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reuben Droughns291204.10
Garrison Hearst5132.60
Darius Watts144.00
Jake Plummer122.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.16