Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.155
- 42.1%Success rate37.7%
- +0.129EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.212
- 8.9%Explosive rate5.6%
- 39.2%Third-down rate33.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.65Points / drive1.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 9:09 | 1 | 18 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 8:49 | 8 | 39 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q1 3:56 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q1 0:49 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CAR | Q2 12:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 11:13 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 3:00 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:18 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q2 0:41 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SF | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SF | Q3 14:52 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q3 14:04 | 8 | 89 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| SF | Q3 10:02 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 12–17 |
| CAR | Q3 9:27 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| SF | Q3 9:24 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CAR | Q3 7:44 | 6 | 95 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| SF | Q3 3:46 | 5 | 44 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| CAR | Q3 0:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–20 |
| SF | Q4 14:39 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| CAR | Q4 10:41 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| SF | Q4 7:12 | 3 | -12 | Turnover | 27–27 |
| CAR | Q4 5:58 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 30–27 |
| SF | Q4 4:25 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 30–27 |
| CAR | Q4 3:27 | 2 | 25 | Touchdown | 37–27 |
| SF | Q4 2:38 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 37–27 |
| CAR | Q4 0:58 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 37–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/34 | 303 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 22/37 | 284 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 21 | 47 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Maurice Hicks | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.74