Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.155
- 42.1%Success rate37.7%
- +0.129EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.212
- 8.9%Explosive rate5.6%
- 39.2%Third-down rate33.2%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.65Points / drive1.10
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.010EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 19/34 | 303 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 22/37 | 284 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 21 | 47 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Maurice Hicks | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.74