Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play+0.239
- 41.4%Success rate53.8%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.412
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.005
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.3%
- 38.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.44Points / drive2.73
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed+0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/41 | 215 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 31 | 98 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/27 | 320 | 5 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.21