Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
50
Model margin
+4.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.162EPA / play+0.110
- 50.0%Success rate46.2%
- +0.287EPA / dropback+0.241
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.085
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- 52.5%Third-down rate46.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
- 2.26Points / drive2.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 11:08 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 6:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 3:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| GB | Q1 2:48 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIN | Q2 14:09 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 8:47 | 3 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| MIN | Q2 7:27 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 10–21 |
| GB | Q2 4:32 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–24 |
| GB | Q3 12:16 | 11 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| MIN | Q3 6:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–24 |
| GB | Q3 5:13 | 1 | 14 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| MIN | Q3 4:53 | 5 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| GB | Q3 2:39 | 8 | 40 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| MIN | Q4 13:24 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 17–31 |
| GB | Q4 10:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–31 |
| MIN | Q4 8:49 | 16 | 91 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| GB | Q4 2:53 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–31 |
| MIN | Q4 2:18 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| GB | Q4 1:20 | 4 | 39 | Field goal | 31–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 27/44 | 363 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/29 | 236 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 21 | 145 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
48.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+4.00