2004 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

31·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

50

Model margin

+4.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.162EPA / play+0.110
  • 50.0%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.287EPA / dropback+0.241
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.085
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • 52.5%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.5%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.02
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.107EPA / play allowed+0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper27/4436340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett5214.20
Onterrio Smith5214.20
Daunte Culpepper3196.30
Nate Burleson11111.00
Kelly Campbell122.00
Moe Williams1-3-3.00

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre20/2923640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green211456.90
Tony Fisher8313.90
Donald Driver11414.00
Antonio Chatman188.00
Najeh Davenport252.50
Nicolas Luchey231.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

48.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+4.00