2004 · Week 10 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.032
- 42.6%Success rate41.4%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.047
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- 37.9%Third-down rate36.1%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.25Points / drive1.69
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.089EPA / play allowed-0.024
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 11:24 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 8:52 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 5:22 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q1 2:25 | 14 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| TB | Q2 10:25 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q2 5:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| TB | Q2 4:02 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q2 2:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| TB | Q2 0:57 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 7–17 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | -1 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q3 12:21 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| TB | Q3 11:23 | 4 | 32 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q3 9:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–17 |
| TB | Q3 7:54 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q3 3:44 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| TB | Q3 2:00 | 4 | -3 | Punt | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q3 0:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| TB | Q4 13:38 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| ATL | Q4 10:40 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| TB | Q4 9:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q4 8:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–24 |
| TB | Q4 6:59 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| ATL | Q4 5:00 | 10 | 48 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/26 | 174 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8/16 | 147 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 17 | 76 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.70