2004 · Week 11

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Shaun King

10·35

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

38

Model margin

+2.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.097EPA / play+0.025
  • 38.1%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback+0.129
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.127
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 34.7%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.65
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.081EPA / play allowed-0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
ARIQ1 15:00717Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:461281Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 6:55616Punt0–7
CARQ1 3:24379Touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 1:53920Missed field goal0–14
CARQ2 14:49320Turnover0–14
ARIQ2 13:27632Turnover0–14
CARQ2 10:13722Turnover on downs0–14
ARIQ2 6:47626Turnover0–14
CARQ2 4:4221Touchdown0–21
ARIQ2 4:311243Turnover on downs0–21
CARQ2 0:58444Touchdown0–28
ARIQ2 0:0200End of half0–28
CARQ3 15:0033Punt0–28
ARIQ3 13:561179Touchdown7–28
CARQ3 9:2046Punt7–28
ARIQ3 7:33641Field goal10–28
CARQ3 4:40515Punt10–28
ARIQ3 1:541024Punt10–28
CARQ4 14:3938Punt10–28
ARIQ4 12:411-4Turnover10–28
CARQ4 12:34318Touchdown10–35
ARIQ4 11:381066Turnover10–35
CARQ4 7:54721Punt10–35
ARIQ4 3:44739Turnover on downs10–35
CARQ4 1:1810End of half10–35

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King28/5234313

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith11262.40
Shaun King6223.70
Josh Scobey4194.80
Troy Hambrick393.00
Obafemi Ayanbadejo166.00
Karl Williams133.00
Larry Fitzgerald200.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme12/2515721
Rodney Peete1/1300
Ricky Proehl0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Goings221215.53
Muhsin Muhammad11313.00
Brandon Bennett11111.00
Ricky Proehl199.00
Jake Delhomme144.00
Rodney Peete1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.21