Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play+0.025
- 38.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.127
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.19Points / drive1.65
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.081EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 28/52 | 343 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Scobey | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/25 | 157 | 2 | 1 |
| Rodney Peete | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Proehl | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 22 | 121 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Proehl | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Peete | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21