Closing spread
NE -3
Total
52
Model margin
+0.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.099EPA / play+0.174
- 46.5%Success rate50.4%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.039EPA / rush+0.091
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- 45.1%Third-down rate47.6%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 2.15Points / drive2.37
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed+0.130
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 17/26 | 315 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 26 | 98 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 1 | 83 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 27/42 | 381 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Blaylock | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.09