2004 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -8
Total
42
Model margin
+5.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.072
- 37.7%Success rate42.6%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.212EPA / rush-0.203
- 5.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.9%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.10Points / drive1.25
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.6%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. TB are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:58 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| TB | Q1 11:55 | 1 | 14 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 11:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 10:01 | 16 | 74 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q2 13:24 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 8:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 6:45 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 5:27 | 3 | 0 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 4:34 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–14 |
| SF | Q2 2:09 | 6 | -1 | Punt | 0–14 |
| TB | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| SF | Q2 0:17 | 1 | 14 | End of half | 0–21 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| SF | Q3 9:55 | 15 | 61 | Field goal | 3–28 |
| TB | Q3 2:13 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–28 |
| SF | Q4 13:25 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–28 |
| TB | Q4 11:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–28 |
| SF | Q4 9:47 | 5 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 3–35 |
| SF | Q4 8:13 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–35 |
| TB | Q4 6:01 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–35 |
| SF | Q4 3:19 | 11 | 83 | End of half | 3–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 15/31 | 147 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/21 | 210 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Earnest Graham | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.83