Closing spread
ATL -9
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.032
- 40.2%Success rate41.4%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.047
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.012
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- 33.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.72Points / drive1.69
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.061EPA / play allowed-0.024
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 19/34 | 189 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/29 | 212 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61