2004 · Week 12 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
39
Model margin
+3.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.025
- 42.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.127
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- 37.9%Third-down rate39.2%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.25Points / drive1.65
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.089EPA / play allowed-0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 27/39 | 347 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 18 | 29 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/21 | 213 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Goings | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59