2004 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -2
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.072
- 41.4%Success rate42.6%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.25
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed-0.089
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/27 | 115 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Schaub | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8 | 81 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 13/21 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ian Smart | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98